Election 2026: The Politics of Interest Rates

With the midterm election coming into focus, expect attention to shift to the Fed’s next two-day meeting that ends on October 28.

Some believe the unspoken rule is that the Fed doesn’t adjust rates prior to an election. On closer review, that’s more of a legend than a rule.

Before the 2024 election cycle, then-Fed Chair Jerome Powell cut rates in September, signaling confidence that inflation was trending toward its 2 percent goal. In fact, a review of Fed history reveals it lowers rates or does nothing at all near an election. Hiking right before a vote is the exception. 

The better question to ask about rates may be, "How long does it take for a Fed rate change to show up in daily life?" Mortgage rates, for example, can take some time to adjust as lenders become more comfortable with the Fed’s policy direction.

So if you start getting a little heartburn thinking about the Fed’s next meeting, know that our strategy anticipates rate adjustments along the way. But if your stomach keeps tossing and turning, please call before you reach for the antacid. 

^{1. CMEGroup.com, September 9, 2026}

^{2. AAII.com, September 28, 2026}